Task 1: Adapt the POLES model to run the storylines developed in WP3

Lead: CNRS

The POLES model provides a relatively versatile framework for the design of global energy scenarios. As issues of security rely very much on the interdependency of variables in the world energy system, the global approach, with demand, supply and prices interconnected in a year-by-year dynamics, is particularly suited.
However, analyses provided in WP3 for future Storylines will probably imply new developments either in the building of the key sets of exogenous hypotheses of the model (population and economic growth, energy resources, GHG abatement policies, technology dynamics) or through the identification of new sets of factors to be taken into account in SECURE, such as: key transport infrastructures, financial or industrial organisation of key energy operators, imperfect competition behaviours of producers. WP4-T1 activities will aim, since the very beginning of the project, to identify the sets of key variables in order to perform scenarios corresponding to analyses in WP3.

Task 2: Add to the POLES model the capacity to report on risk assessments and other measures of energy security as developed in WP1

Lead: CNRS

The POLES model has been designed in order to provide year-by-year simulations of the world energy system, with a high degree of detail in the identification both of the key nations or geographical groupings, and of the key technologies that play or might play a role in the future of the energy system.
However, all the variables and scenarios in the POLES modelling system are dealt with in a fully deterministic way. Introducing elements of probability for the key variables or key subsystems will constitute a major improvement in the capabilities of the model to deal with the definition of complex European energy strategies

Task 3: Develop ERA, a compact partial equilibrium model that estimates the risks and impacts arising from different energy scenarios

Lead: FEEM

As a complement, the Energy Risk Assessment model – ERA, a compact partial equilibrium model with stochastic supply of energy – will be developed within an energy demand-supply framework based on domestic and foreign supply curves and domestic and foreign demand curves produced by systematic simulations of the POLES model. This will allow comparing the costs of  more investment intensive but less vulnerable energy systems, with those of less investment intensive but more dependent and vulnerable systems. The calculation of the ‘costs of the uncertainty’ in terms of the loss of expected utility, will also be converted into a Willingness-To-Pay (WTP) to reduce the risks. The model will be calibrated for known levels of risk aversion to assess the costs of the insecurities identified in WP1 and WP3.

Task 4: Sensitivity analysis of policy options with input from WP5 and WP6

Lead: CNRS; FEEM, OME

Activities in WP4-T4 will aim at providing the first generation of comprehensive results from the POLES modelling system with preliminary estimates of the major risks associated to the Storylines considered in SECURE’s WP1. This first generation of scenario will provide detailed information on the future energy systems to be considered in WP5 and WP6 and constitute a common basis for sectoral analyses of security issues. The first set of risk analyses in the new non-deterministic framework developed in WP4-T2 will also provide the basis for common analyses by the different partners. 
WP4-T4 will then integrate the whole set of analyses and information developed on a sectoral basis in WP5 to the first generation of results and scenarios. It will thus produce improved materials for the preparation of the final results of the project in WP6.

Task 5: Combination of the POLES and the Partial Equilibrium Model Results

Lead: CNRS; FEEM

This task will combine insights on the costs of different types of energy insecurity using the two approaches and provide a comparative assessment.

Workpackage 4 is carried out under the co-ordination of CNRS