SECURE Project - Security of Energy Considering its Uncertainty, Risk and Economic implications

WP 3 Development of qualitative long term scenario policy lines

 

Objectives

  • To identify a long term security strategy for Europe based on EC energy policy and priorities

  • To develop Qualitative Long-Term Scenario Policy-Lines as input for WP 4 that runs quantitative global models and will serve as a framework for the energy security analysis in WP4 and WP5.

Participants:  CEPS, OME, FEEM, CNRS 

Description of work

WP3 will develop the qualitative long-term scenario framework and policy-lines for energy scenarios upon which the different tools and models to measure security of supply developed in this project will be applied.

Task 3.1:

Identification of a long term security strategy for Europe based on an analysis of existing EU and member state policy papers, the work of the from WP2 and a limited number of short unstructured interviews with key officials in the European Commission, member states and stakeholder from industry (Principally undertaken by CEPS in consultation with OME, LEEPI and FEEM).

Task 3.2:

The primary work in WP 3 will be to set out the broad policy options and scenarios to be considered. WP 3 will develop three well contrasted scenario storylines based on the EC energy policy priorities; security of supply, environment, and competitiveness (note that competitiveness will be defined in two ways: on the one hand as changes in the costs base for an industry as a result of a policy intervention and on the other hand, the potential for EU industry in sunrise industries or environmental markets) in addition to the reference or “equidistant” scenario policy-line. Possibly a fourth storyline could be developed that already integrates the trade-offs arsing from pursuing simultaneously energy security, environment and competitiveness objectives. The scenario storyline will principally be developed by CEPS, however with significant input from other WP partners (OME, LEEPI, FEEM), notably using their sectoral expertise for oil, gas and electricity but also to ensue that storylines are developed in such a way that they are easily usable for WP 4 and 5.

Task 3.3:

An important part of the work will be to find an agreement on the policies/scenarios to be considered, as they will be critical for the future work of the project.  Major issues to be decided will be on what to include in the storylines both at the economy-wide and the sector level (i.e. oil, gas, electricity including nuclear, renewable). This Task will be undertaken jointly by all WP participants under the leadership of CEPS.

Workpackage 3 is carried out under the co-ordination of CEPS

Seventh Framework Programme

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