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PLANETS First E-Conference
17 October 2008

The first PLANETS poll has focused on China energy and environmental trends. The participants have been asked to elicitate on Chinese energy intensity, electricity mix, and carbon emission growth, with a focus on future development and potential policy measures.

The poll has lasted a month, and was attended by about thirty people, among partners, invited stakeholders and registered users.

Main Results:

Question 1:

Answer 1

Comment: Endorsing energy saving policy has been considered the factor that can mostly contribute to the reversing of the recent growth of chinese energy intensity (50% of votes). International Oil price has also emerged as an important factor (31% of votes). A participant has especially pointed to the role of increasing coal prices, suggesting that the limits to overall growth in China will be set by potential oil and gas peaks. Finally, reducing energy subsidies has been judged as less important (19% of votes), although its complementarity to energy saving policies has been highlighted.

Question 2:

Answer 2

Comment: Respondents thinks that the Chinese electric power capacity additions in the next 20 years will be characterized mostly by a growing focus on nuclear (47% of votes), and on renewables (38% of votes). Only the 15% of respondents predicted a similar (coal based) trend as the one observed in the last decade.

Question 3:

Answer 3

Comment: the majority of respondents thinks that China CO2 emissions growth in the next 20 years will look like the same as the one from 1990, e.g. 6% per year (42% of votes), whereas 33% of votes  have agreed with the latest EIA projections (4% per year) and the remaining 25% thing it will be the same as the one from 2000 (over 10% per year). It has been pointed out that there is the possibility that the trend can be no linear, slowing down towards the end of the projecting period.

The respondants comments to this poll have emphasized that Chinese authorities at various levels are increasingly taking atmospheric pollution very seriously, but that China is just starting to implement environmental policies, mostly through command and control measures, while market based instruments are still largely unused. It has also been pointed out that China still has considerable room to maneuvre energy taxes in order to promote energy savings.

 

E-conference Text and Results:

Global CO2 emissions growth in the past few years has exceeded expectations. The main source of unexpected emissions is China, that has displayed a growth rate since 2000 in excess of 10% per year, becoming the world leader emitter. What can we expect for the next 20 years?

Please choose one answer for each of the three following topics. You are welcome to post any comment you feel can improve the quality of the discussion.

This e-conference has been closed on 17th November 2008.



1. One of main reasons for this pattern can be attributed to energy intensity. Between 1980 and 2000, energy intensity in China has been falling faster than in any other major economy. However, since 2000, energy use has exceeded economic growth, that is energy intensity has increased. There are now signs that this trend is stopping, possibly due to high fossil fuel prices, although energy subsidies are still significant in China. The Chinese government has also set ambitious goals for energy efficiency. What do you think is the factor that can most importantly contribute to the reversing of this recent energy use trend?

A) International Oil price : 30.77 % - 8 vote(s)
B) Reducing energy subsidies : 19.23 % - 5 vote(s)
C) Endorsing energy saving policies : 50 % - 13 vote(s)

2. The carbon intensity of energy has also been increasing in China, mainly due to coal based power generation. In 2006 alone, 80 GW of coal fired plants were put into operation, one quarter of the entire US coal fleet. However, air pollution is growingly being recognized as an important environmental problem. In addition, coal prices have increased significantly, and China has become a coal net importer. Investments in renewables and nuclear are being considered as a potential alternative. How do you think the power capacity additions in the 20 years will be characterized?

A) As in the last decade : 15.38 % - 4 vote(s)
B) Growing focus on renewables : 38.46 % - 10 vote(s)
C) Growing focus on nuclear : 46.15 % - 12 vote(s)

3. Chinese CO2 emissions have fundamental implications for international climate protection policies. In case Chinese emissions continue to grow at the current rates, stringent stabilization goals might be unattainable without China participation. Thus, projection of near term emissions are important drivers of modelling results. What do you think average China emissions growth will look like in the next 20 years?

A) The same as the one from 2000 (over 10% per year) : 25 % - 6 vote(s)
B) The same as the one from 1990 (6% per year) : 41.67 % - 10 vote(s)
C) The latest EIA* projections (4% per year) [* Energy Information Agency, International Energy Outlook 2008] : 33.33 % - 8 vote(s)

This e-conference is closed.
Comments
[stakeholder] Ugo Farinelli wrote:
Chinese authorities at various level are taking atmospheric pollution very seriously, and are also concerned about GHG although they can hardly be expected to take the initiative. The introduction of CCS may be a key element. China is the world leader in coal gasification (but in the chemical and fertilizer sectors, not for power production).
[partner] Dalia Streimikiene wrote:
I was involved in IAEA coordinated research project on Post-Kyoto climate change mitigation regimes. Our Chinese partners developed interesting study on impact of these regimes on Chinese energy sector. I found from this study that China is just starting to implement environmental policies mainly driven by comand and control measures and economic tools of environmental regulation is completely new thing for them therefore I am not convinced that China will contribute seriously to the world GHG emission reduction efforts.
[partner] Reyer Gerlagh wrote:
When China develops a richer tax structure, it is important that it follows Europe's path with relatively high energy taxes (esp on households and petrol), rather than the US path with low energy taxes. Tax efficiency arguments can be useful here. Those in contact with Chinese policy developers should understand the basics of efficient tax policy.
Seventh Framework Programme

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