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WP 2 Developing baseline scenarios

Objectives

The second workpackage is dedicated to developing the baseline scenarios for each of the participating models. In order to do so, all partners agree on a uniform set of parameter values and variables setting that serve as input for developing the baseline scenario runs of PLANETS. This is an essential prerequisite in order to better compare the policy scenarios between the models in later workpackages, and understand the differences that occur between them. Subsequently, each model is used to generate scenarios without assuming specific policies, i.e. in a Business as Usual framework. This is an activity of significant relevance for workpackages 5 and 6, as the baseline determination is among the important factors influencing the evaluation of the efforts needed to comply with energy and environmental policies in terms of both technology requirements and economic costs.


Description of work

Task 2.1: Setting common assumptions

Partners: FEEM, ECN, USTUTT, KANLO, ORDECSYS, UNIMAN, CHALMERS, LEI

Given the wide variety of models used in the project, the main drivers of the model outcomes are determined. Common assumptions are selected and agreed upon for these main drivers. In particular, assumptions are made for such variables as population growth, economic development and autonomous technological change.


Task 2.2: Baseline projections

Partners: FEEM, ECN, USTUTT, KANLO, ORDECSYS, UNIMAN

On the basis of the above common assumptions, it is intended to develop baseline scenarios that are as homogeneous as achievable. All six models are used to generate these Business-As-Usual scenarios, with a time horizon to 2050/2060.


Task 2.3: Baseline implications

Partner: USTUTT

The baseline scenarios are compared in their most essential aspects, as for example with regards to the projected path of carbon dioxide emissions, the consumption of exhaustible energy or material resources as well as technological development. The results are organized and formatted together, presented in combined plots and as such made accessible to the public on the PLANETS website.


Workpackage 2 is carried out under the co-ordination of USTUTT

Seventh Framework Programme

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