PLANETS Project Home PLANETS Project - Probabilistic Long-Term Assessment of New Energy Technology Scenarios

The PLANETS consortium features strong methodological skills that will be employed during the project. The core analysis will be carried out by 6 energy-economy-climate models, to analyze the energy system in both Europe and the world, including economic, environmental and stochastic dimensions, with the purpose to develop scenarios for energy technologies under certain climate and environmental constraints. Two main technology assessments will complement the scenario runs performed with the numerical models. Also interdisciplinary approaches and qualitative judgments will be used for enhancing the policy support expected from PLANETS, as well as providing important input for the modelling work.

The modelling suite will be initially updated to match the state of the art, and then confronted on the basis of the main outputs. Suggestions about the possible evolution of the main drivers of the scenarios will be collected among all project partners, so that a wide range of possible futures are accounted for in the analysis.

Subsequently, having taken this confrontation into account and having familiarized with the models, two technological assessment will provide precious information about the policy and technological dimensions of the scenario work. Such assessment will be valuable per se besides providing new input for the 6 models in terms of technological specification and data sets. With this information in hand, the models will be used to produce scenario analysis and investigate the implications of incorporating uncertainty into the analysis.

Potential risks stem from the diverse nature of the models, in terms of geographical coverage, technological specification, economic sector description, and so forth. Although this diversity will hopefully produce of very rich set of research results, it could also make the process of homogenization more difficult. Such a risk is mitigated by the fact the models employed here have been used already in conjunction in previous research, notably in several European Commission funded project. As such, many models have shown that harmonization –and in same cases even direct linkage- can be achieved within this class of methodologies.

Yet, to reduce the risk of mis-alignment of the models, the scenario work might not necessarily develop around single story-lines (on the main drivers of the results), but will also focus on the stochastic and probabilistic characteristics of scenario analysis. Across model specification of uncertainties will make the most of the strong mathematical skills of the research group, as well as provide a robust metric of comparison.

Seventh Framework Programme

This website reflects only the views of the PLANETS Consortium and does not represent the opinion of the European Community.
The European Community is not liable for any use that may be made of the information contained herein.