PLANETS Policy Brief
PLANETS Work-package 5: results database
Regional Economic and Energy Implications of Reaching Global Climate Targets – A Policy Scenario Analysis
The database contains modelling results of ten policy scenarios analysed using the six models involved in the project: WITCH (FEEM), ETSAP-TIAM (KANLO), TIAMEC (ECN), PEM (USTUTT), DEMETER (UNIMAN & Tilburg University), GEMINI-E3 (ORDECSYS).
Results are reported for six different regions: World, OECD countries, Energy Exporting countries (EEX), Developing Asia (DEVASIA), and Rest of the World (ROW).
The ten scenarios combine:
- Target 1: radiative forcing below 3.2 Watts/m2. This roughly corresponds to 500ppm CO2eq
- Target 2: radiative forcing below 3.5 W/m2. This roughly corresponds to 530ppm CO2eq
- First best: immediate, fully cooperative action starting from 2012 (denoted FB-3p2, FB-3p5)
- Second best: each target is combined with two different regional emission quotas (SC1-3p5, SC2-3p5, SC1-3p2, SC2-3p2). The second best scenarios with the 3.2 target explore the feasibility of ‘catching up‘ after 2050, even though less-than-optimal emissions trajectories have been followed before that date. The two sets of emissions quotas (commitments) are defined in the table below. For example, the Table tells us that for commitment SC1, OECD reductions in 2050 must reach 80% of 2005 emissions, and that these reductions start in 2015.
QUOTAS in 2050
QUOTAS in 2050
|OECD||2015||20% (reduction=80%)||10% (reduction=90%)|
|ENERGY EXPORTING -EEX||2025||50% (reduction=50%)||100% (reduction=0%)|
|DEVELOPING ASIA - DevASIA||2025||125% (increase of 25%)||100% (reduction=0%)|
|ROW||2025||155% (increase of 55%)||200% (increase of 100%)|
|WORLD||72% (reduction of 28%)||73% (reduction of 27%)|
- Second best scenarios with a limit on the purchasing of carbon permits between 2020 and 2050. During that period, at most 20% of the abatement can be done with international offsets in the form of permit purchases. These two scenarios are denoted VAR (VAR1-3p5, VAR2-3p5, VAR1-3p2, VAR2-3p2).
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