PLANETS will offer the opportunity to propose an innovative methodology for scenario analysis, meant to improve the traditional poor performance of past forecasting exercises.
The most important advancement with respect to the existing literature will be the use of advanced models that are all able to accommodate the probabilistic dimension of the problem. Indeed, one reason that energy projections have done so poorly may be that forecasters have not thought broadly enough about how the future may be different from the past. Thus, a new approach to developing probabilistic inputs for use in long term analysis of energy and climate policy scenarios is welcome, and is one of the focus of the project.
As a matter of fact, state-of-the-art modelling techniques are employed in the project to produce probabilistic scenarios (Workpackage 6). Methodology wise, both Monte-Carlo analysis and stochastic programming techniques are used to account for all the most important uncertainties that drive the final results. Since the uncertainty analysis will involve the whole modelling suite, the probabilistic assessment will cover a wider range of different methodologies than previously examined.
Finally, the project will enable to design the projections as driven by the needs of the decision makers. It will expand over the development of a small number of very detailed story lines, as for example used in the IPCC SRES scenario projections. This is meant to avoid causing users to overlook a wide variety of alternate developments that could lead to similar outcomes for key variables such as energy use.
Regarding performance of the research, it is possible to consider a list of potential indicators:
1) To contribute to the improvement of scientific knowledge and the advancement of research in the field of scenario analysis. To provide a robust investigation of potential future developments of energy technologies:
- Number of Workshops held
- Workpackage Reports
- Scientific Publications (working papers, peer-reviewed academic articles): impact factor/diffusion of publications, number of quotation
2) To inform and establish durable links between scientific institutions, industry, governmental and non-governmental organisations, and other stakeholders dealing with energy scenarios:
- Web site contents and outreach
- Workshops and local meetings programme and participation
- E-conferences: number and registered users
- Concluding conference programme and list of participants
- Number of downloads of working papers and publications
- Export of data, graphs, results from the website
You can access the results of the PLANETS project also by following the link to the publications web page.
- Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei
- Energy Research Centre of the Netherlands
- University of Stuttgart
- SARL KANLO Consultants
- Operations Research Decisions and Systems Consultants
- Chalmers tekniska hoegskola Aktiebolag
- Lithuanian Energy Institute
- University of Manchester
- Tilburg University
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