WP 1 - Scenarios of Energy Use

Objectives

  • To estimate electricity scenarios with a 2030 time frame for 25 EU countries, Turkey, Bulgaria, Brazil, India and China.

Description of work

This WP provides electricity scenarios up to 2030 for each of the countries studied.

Task 1: to analyse and set up the list of parameters having direct influence on the evolution of the electricity demand, including: economic growth rate, income level, structure of the electricity demand, in particular (a) peak load and seasonal variation and (b) level of energy intensity, electricity prices and prices of alternative final energies, including the possible distortions created by energy subsidies and the governments' policies to remove them, structure of the energy industry, potential for energy savings and demand-side management. A matrix of parameters for each country is developed.

Task 2: to analyse the existing and potential supply options with regard to the primary energy used for power generation: (i) primary energy consumption by fuels, (ii) share of domestic primary energy supply vs. imports, (iii) structure of the power generation park by technology and fuel, and efficiency of the power generating units, as a criterion for their selection, (iv) efficiency of the transmission and distribution systems (technical and non technical losses), (v) interconnections, which allow for both a structured export-import market of electricity and a reduction in reserve margins. Particular attention is given to the energy policy drivers: (i) environment (Kyoto Protocol, European environmental and emission trading directives), (ii) governmental and European policies for security of supply, (iii) governmental and European policies for nuclear energy, (iv) institutional (market structure), (v) economic (cost of domestic supply and imports), and (vi) technological (nuclear EPR, ITER etc). For countries, where data are available, an in-house model by ECON that describes the demand and supply curves for the North-European countries is used. For countries where data are not readily available to feed the ECON model, a more descriptive approach is used to build quantitative scenarios. The final set of scenarios is developed taking account of cost information for electricity based on WP6 and WP7.

Task 3: to compare and position the obtained results with other available scenarios, in particular of the following organisations: the European Commission (Primes, Poles, NEEDS), the International Energy Agency, Eurelectric, and national Governments.

All tasks are carried out under the co-ordination of OME with FEEM and ECON, with the direct involvement of the institutions of the interested countries (COPPETEC, IIMA, ERI, EAP, TUBITAK).

6fp logo This website reflects only the views of the CASES Consortium and does not represent the opinion of the European Community. The European Community is not liable for any use that may be made of the information contained herein.